Saturday, February 21, 2009

TheRadikal.com's Official Election Predictions

First and foremost, let me speak to the issue of credibility. Aside from my Alum' readership, every single regular contributor and friend of the blog hails allegiance to one of the two major Indie factions. There are minor factions as well - be very sure of this. However, these minor factions have succumbed to the ramifications of internal party strife - not seen in Indie cirlcles since the Spring 2005 term.

Minor factions have wrestled with the fact that they are not in a position to break into yet another viable faction and so, have compromised their stances and become mere tendencies of a larger, more pronounced organization - key tendencies from within the Progs would be best articulated by those wanting more revolutionary politics and a mor militant-SG. The leadership of the Progress Party, while possibly sympathetic to many of these worldly causes, has undergone sometimes subtle, sometimes rigid efforts aimed at keeping Dictor a viable alternative to McShera for many Indie moderates. So...I would say that a minor faction within Progress would be 'The Red & Blacks' championed by Justin Wooten. Let it be recorded for all [SG]history, that it was not Ben Dictor or Ben Dictor's charm that won the Progress Party this blog's endorsement, rather, it was the ideological perspectives and future-outlook of Justin Wooten. JW is the red, MT is the black, and JS is neither, but they're all Progress!.

The Orange & Blue Party's minor faction would be the The Pragmatists, of which I believe even Mark McShera could be categorized as being a part of. This faction, through failed attempts stretching even pre-12/11, seemed growingly resilient in its efforts at avoiding a split. Initially, 'the Progs' seemed open to talks with the stunning victory of Donte Hargrove, but even this bleak glimmer of hope soon faded, as Hargrove formally accepted the strengthened role of Party Chair Joe Trimboli (almost a pre-condition on his very election) , thereby substantially weakening the title he'd gain from outgoing Party President (& boss) Sam Mioreli. I believe, that the election of Hargrove drew a line between hardline-Official thought and a version of pragmatism willing to lose some power, in the hopes of saving the day. It's no secret McShera more than likely voted for Hargrove, but what does this say about the candidate and the structure of the party supporting him? Supporting or forcing? Today there is no question Mark wants the Presidency, but in Oct., Nov., and Dec. - it's a bit iffy.


(getting past that little preamble)....

I have Johnson winning the first round, similar to Joe Goldberg in '05, missing the win by less than 1-point. Forcing a run-off.

I predict a large turn-out election: 13,000 votes, of which I believe Jordan Johnson will receive between 6,000-6,500 votes; I believe O&B will come in a distant second with between 3,250 - 3,500 votes; Progress I believe will get between a low of 1,600 votes and a high of 2,100; independent/write-ins candidates will probably secure the remaining votes.

Not to be bested by Progress '05, I believe Progress '09 would not only not endorse Orange & Blue (staying silent per MM/Robert's incarnation) but endorse Unite/Johnson as a final vindication. Johnson/Unite, will more than likely offer piecemeal concessions through mid-level intermediaries and likely fail to give full faith and credit under a Johnson administration to any of the said offers come May 2009.

At this point, Dictor (like most defeated presidential candidates - e.g. Tommy Jardon, Dennis Ngin, Bruce Haupt, Jared Hernandez, Travis Marsh, etc) would either graduate and leave, fade away, or decide to hang up their prestigious SG credentials, opting for retirement and possibly living on as consultants for a carefully selected cadre of respective proteges.

It will be with Dictor's defeat (or McShera's) that we will see where th Independent movement will head post-election and into the new decade. I believe a JW/MT-led Progress would never marry Orange & Blue in the Fall of this year, then again it depends who's in the driver seat.

For O&B Trimboli is the driver (with Miorelli making the gear changes, Cavatero navigating (despite the fact the car comes with OnStar), Stacey Gray has been carefully buckeled into her baby-chair, and Hargrove's out behind in full force - pushing.) . In Progress Simmons is doing the driving, Dictor is doing the site-seeing, MT has leaned forward from the backseat to channel-surf the radio-dial, meanwhile JW & a group of SDS'ers push the car as it smokes by O&B at high speeds of 9mph - yes NINE MILES PER HOUR.

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Does Justin Wooten even go to UF or is he a full time campaigner/protester?

Anonymous said...

where does Armando Grundy Gomes factor into all of this?

Anonymous said...

If you really think Unite will get 6500 votes, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

Anonymous said...

He does not. That is why people think he is FBI or something. He came out of nowhere, he doesn't attend class, no one knows his background, he looks to clean cut, he is pretty old.
When he showed up, he started fucking around with SDS which caused the leadership and longtime members to quit because they didn't want to deal with his shit.

Anonymous said...

Why is there approval on comments?

Anonymous said...

Christian, when do you start talking shit about the new rival blog?

Anonymous said...

Christian,

Your post is nothing more than a challenge to the Progs. There is no way that they are not going to support O & B and forfeit the entire independent movement. We can look to the recent events in national politics, Hillary and Obama, and see that this is not likely to happen. Progs will support O & B and they can work out the details later. There is no way they would support Unite.

My prediction is

1. A runoff between Unite and 0 & B

this will happen in both races P/VP and T

2. The totals will be

12,000 to 13, 000 votes

In the P/VP race

Unite - 6,000
O & B - 4,500
Prog - 1,500

In the Treas. Race

Unite - 5,000
O & B - 5,500
Prog - 1,500

In a run-off the Progs ABSOLUTELY will endorse and support O & B.

Cash is king in a run-off so I hope both sides have saved up. Voter turn-out is lower the second time around, as most voters feel they have done their civic duty by voting the first time.

Runoff P/VP- I find it hard to predict this, post the national election. If the campus turns out in the first election, then we can expect a higher voter turn-out and possibly an O & B victory.

Run-off Treas - If I were Laguna I would get down on my knees, because with the majority of the indies behind him, the AA's, and experience, White sealed the deal on this one by simply securing a spot on McShera's slate.

White certainly was the smartest player this time around. His victory is the only certainty in this campaign, that and that Freshman and Sophomore will go to Unite!

Ken said...

My response to Duque's post can be found here:

http://speaking.kenkerns.com/?p=498

Predictions of 12K-13K voters in the first ballot seem unreal to me. But then, getting 10K+ people to vote in a fall election was unreal. So what do I know?

As I said over on my blog, the historic average would put Unite at 46%, O&B at 33%, and Progs in the low teens. If turnout is as predicted, Anon 8:11 is predicting something not too far off the historic average, so rather a safe guess, although they seem to be more bullish on White than I'd be at this point.

I won't be too bold in my guesses as to who wins, but I'd put money on Molly Flynn (O&B-Pharmacy) winning because of her conscientious GOTV efforts in the satellite campuses. Oh, and while Progs might even win a seat or two in Grad, we all know who will win Fresh and Soph barring an "Epic Fail".

Anonymous said...

8:11 PM you are batshit retarded

Anonymous said...

Brandon White is a joke. He doesn't even like the Orange and Blue Party. He just wants to win his election.

Anonymous said...

Christian, I will e-mail you my projections so you can have them for your enjoyment. I have to say I believe you are dead wrong!

Anonymous said...

I meant PC organization in my last post, not PC frat.

Justin Wooten said...

Oh no, my cover is blown!

But seriously, I'm disappointed Christian that you're letting such vicious slander of me appear on this blog. I've explained my background and current situation to anyone interested enough to ask.

Frankly, I had to do a lot work to put myself through community college (Chipola College) before I came to UF. I don't come from a privileged background . I wasn't able to live off mommy and daddy, so I didn't exactly get through community college at a fast pace. So yeah, I'm a little older than most students at UF.

I decided to take this semester off because of some academic issues. I frankly don't want to continue majoring in mathematics, and the administration isn't exactly thrilled with the idea of me switching majors. So rather than wasting anymore time on math this semester, I decided not to take classes and wait till the campaign is over before seeking employment. I'll probably start taking classes again in the summer.

As far as me screwing up SDS when I showed up, that is complete bullshit. I didn't probably even speak at a single SDS meeting for like 3 months. I just went along with whatever the leadership wanted. There has been some issues very recently concerning structure, but I never tried to turn SDS in any direction. I have always been committed to the ideals and missions we have got behind.

Anonymous said...

Best ad ever, it is even on television http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl-5lswwriQ

Anonymous said...

Who wants to bet $10 that Anon 8:11 is either a freshman or new to this game?

O&B and Progress have done nothing to rally the students, the average student doesn't care that Greeks run SG. They could really care less. The average student also cannot relate to a bunch of Hume kids who think they are creating a revolution. Start making your campaigns centered around likable individuals who can relate to students and rally their support instead of fringe dorks who are socially awkward.

Anonymous said...

The day forever fortunate has arrived, which the UF Students people have consecrated to TheBenDictor. Never has the world which He created offered to Him a spectacle so worthy of His notice. He has seen reigning on the earth tyranny, crime, and imposture. He sees at this moment a whole nation, grappling with all the oppressions of the human race, suspend the course of its heroic labors to elevate its thoughts and vows toward the great Being who has given it the mission it has undertaken and the strength to accomplish it.

Is it not He whose immortal hand, engraving on the heart of the students the code of justice and equality, has written there the death sentence of tyrants? Is it not He who, from the beginning of time, decreed for all the ages and for all peoples liberty, good faith, and justice?

He did not create kings to devour the human race. He did not create priests to harness us, like vile animals, to the chariots of kings and to give to the world examples of baseness, pride, perfidy, avarice, debauchery, and falsehood. He created the universe to proclaim His power. He created men to help each other, to love each other mutually, and to attain to happiness by the way of virtue.

It is He who implanted in the breast of the triumphant oppressor remorse and terror, and in the heart of the oppressed and innocent calmness and fortitude. It is He who impels the just man to hate the evil one, and the evil man to respect the just one. It is He who adorns with modesty the brow of beauty, to make it yet more beautiful. It is He who makes the mother's heart beat with tenderness and joy. It is He who bathes with delicious tears the eyes of the son pressed to the bosom of his mother. It is He who silences the most imperious and tender passions before the sublime love of the fatherland. It is He who has covered nature with charms, riches, and majesty. All that is good is His work, or is Himself. Evil belongs to the depraved man who oppresses his fellow man or suffers him to be oppressed.

God I love TheBenDictor

Anonymous said...

These turnout predictions are way over the top.

Progress will especially feel foolish when turnout numbers come out tonight. The electorate is going to be about the same size it always is with decent competition, 7500-9500.

Neither indie party is strong enough to drive out voter turnout to where it needs to be. Unite could have driven turnout up with direct mail, tv and radio but by forgoing these options they will get in the same range the system always does.

Basically turnout will be average and the indies better hope for a miracle that suppresses Unite's turnout.