First and foremost, let me speak to the issue of credibility. Aside from my Alum' readership, every single regular contributor and friend of the blog hails allegiance to one of the two major Indie factions. There are minor factions as well - be very sure of this. However, these minor factions have succumbed to the ramifications of internal party strife - not seen in Indie cirlcles since the Spring 2005 term.
Minor factions have wrestled with the fact that they are not in a position to break into yet another viable faction and so, have compromised their stances and become mere tendencies of a larger, more pronounced organization - key tendencies from within the Progs would be best articulated by those wanting more revolutionary politics and a mor militant-SG. The leadership of the Progress Party, while possibly sympathetic to many of these worldly causes, has undergone sometimes subtle, sometimes rigid efforts aimed at keeping Dictor a viable alternative to McShera for many Indie moderates. So...I would say that a minor faction within Progress would be 'The Red & Blacks' championed by Justin Wooten. Let it be recorded for all [SG]history, that it was not Ben Dictor or Ben Dictor's charm that won the Progress Party this blog's endorsement, rather, it was the ideological perspectives and future-outlook of Justin Wooten. JW is the red, MT is the black, and JS is neither, but they're all Progress!.
The Orange & Blue Party's minor faction would be the The Pragmatists, of which I believe even Mark McShera could be categorized as being a part of. This faction, through failed attempts stretching even pre-12/11, seemed growingly resilient in its efforts at avoiding a split. Initially, 'the Progs' seemed open to talks with the stunning victory of Donte Hargrove, but even this bleak glimmer of hope soon faded, as Hargrove formally accepted the strengthened role of Party Chair Joe Trimboli (almost a pre-condition on his very election) , thereby substantially weakening the title he'd gain from outgoing Party President (& boss) Sam Mioreli. I believe, that the election of Hargrove drew a line between hardline-Official thought and a version of pragmatism willing to lose some power, in the hopes of saving the day. It's no secret McShera more than likely voted for Hargrove, but what does this say about the candidate and the structure of the party supporting him? Supporting or forcing? Today there is no question Mark wants the Presidency, but in Oct., Nov., and Dec. - it's a bit iffy.
(getting past that little preamble)....
I have Johnson winning the first round, similar to Joe Goldberg in '05, missing the win by less than 1-point. Forcing a run-off.
I predict a large turn-out election: 13,000 votes, of which I believe Jordan Johnson will receive between 6,000-6,500 votes; I believe O&B will come in a distant second with between 3,250 - 3,500 votes; Progress I believe will get between a low of 1,600 votes and a high of 2,100; independent/write-ins candidates will probably secure the remaining votes.
Not to be bested by Progress '05, I believe Progress '09 would not only not endorse Orange & Blue (staying silent per MM/Robert's incarnation) but endorse Unite/Johnson as a final vindication. Johnson/Unite, will more than likely offer piecemeal concessions through mid-level intermediaries and likely fail to give full faith and credit under a Johnson administration to any of the said offers come May 2009.
At this point, Dictor (like most defeated presidential candidates - e.g. Tommy Jardon, Dennis Ngin, Bruce Haupt, Jared Hernandez, Travis Marsh, etc) would either graduate and leave, fade away, or decide to hang up their prestigious SG credentials, opting for retirement and possibly living on as consultants for a carefully selected cadre of respective proteges.
It will be with Dictor's defeat (or McShera's) that we will see where th Independent movement will head post-election and into the new decade. I believe a JW/MT-led Progress would never marry Orange & Blue in the Fall of this year, then again it depends who's in the driver seat.
For O&B Trimboli is the driver (with Miorelli making the gear changes, Cavatero navigating (despite the fact the car comes with OnStar), Stacey Gray has been carefully buckeled into her baby-chair, and Hargrove's out behind in full force - pushing.) . In Progress Simmons is doing the driving, Dictor is doing the site-seeing, MT has leaned forward from the backseat to channel-surf the radio-dial, meanwhile JW & a group of SDS'ers push the car as it smokes by O&B at high speeds of 9mph - yes NINE MILES PER HOUR.
Showing posts with label The Prags. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Prags. Show all posts
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Progress, Orange And Blue
The Independent movement is at war - there's no other way of putting it. Compromise at this stage is still possible, it will be possible up until the day of slating - be clear on that fact! However, it's time to validate what's been said on this blog for sixty days now - there are factions, there is an ideological divide, and Dictor does have a tangible base of support.
The Officials have governed with Iron Fist... and the excuse that McShera was biding his time until Sam Miorelli announced his, is simply unacceptable. As recent as three months ago, McShera expressed no clear-cut desire in executive office of any sort. With the news that Miorelli would leave, a gap appeared out of thin air, and The Officials' hasty attempt at filling it - failed!
Fall 2008 also signaled the advent of new beginnings. The largely untapped, disillusioned (with SG) Left answered Dictor's call - and - as opposed to Officialist thinkers like Joe Trimboli & Kyle Huey, SDS is not (by majority) with them.
There is, however, something to be said about SDS Leader Skeet Surrency. Leading Progs cite that Skeet has been inactive in recent terms and that new SDS Leadership will come about - a new leadership that will likely not include the likes of Mr. Surrency.
Conflicting reports have made this lone SDS'er's loyalities somewhat ambiguous. The Officialist-line believes Surrency will not only be loyal to its faction, but that he will capitalize on O/B-Holdouts in the organization and bring about org.-wide support for McShera.
The Progressivist-line begins be refuting these assertions in that 'SDS doesn't run that way...' meaning that no single one person can turn the group. The Progs also cite that Surrency has already pledged his support - and - it wasn't to The Officials. So where does Skeet really stand and is it even relevant to SDS or the GREATER LEFT that Officialist thought has consistently refused to credit to the now splintered-off Progressive Faction of the Orange & Blue Party?
The question of reconciliation cannot be addressed until The Officials address their former comrades with the respect they're owed. Do I agree with the Progs voting down of an O/B'er? Partly, I do and partly, I've personally instigated the notion on this blog.
How can the Progs speak of ideological separation per the upcoming elections yet act inconspicuously in chambers? How do prospective supporters of the breakaway O/B Faction comprise their ideals to fall out of line and support a rebel, when that same rebel and that rebel's supporters are still in-line and actively promoting the very agenda that they're campaign literature states (or will state) they've broken away from?
Ideally, both factions will unite, but I am of the opinion that Ben Dictor offers the greatest amount of good for the independent movement and that McShera was largely thrust into the gap in a hasty, somewhat messy chain of events. I am also firmly of the belief another splinter, this time within the Officials (hereinafter dubbed "the Pragmatists" or 'the Prags') are more open to dialogue and concessions that holding the line against their populist rival faction's executive selection(s).
Institutionally speaking, however, the Officials et. al. (through Article IV. & creation of a strong Party Chair position to offset any difficulties with Miorelli's replacement) are both unprepared & unwilling to eiter share power or much less, hand it over.
The Officials have governed with Iron Fist... and the excuse that McShera was biding his time until Sam Miorelli announced his, is simply unacceptable. As recent as three months ago, McShera expressed no clear-cut desire in executive office of any sort. With the news that Miorelli would leave, a gap appeared out of thin air, and The Officials' hasty attempt at filling it - failed!
Fall 2008 also signaled the advent of new beginnings. The largely untapped, disillusioned (with SG) Left answered Dictor's call - and - as opposed to Officialist thinkers like Joe Trimboli & Kyle Huey, SDS is not (by majority) with them.
There is, however, something to be said about SDS Leader Skeet Surrency. Leading Progs cite that Skeet has been inactive in recent terms and that new SDS Leadership will come about - a new leadership that will likely not include the likes of Mr. Surrency.
Conflicting reports have made this lone SDS'er's loyalities somewhat ambiguous. The Officialist-line believes Surrency will not only be loyal to its faction, but that he will capitalize on O/B-Holdouts in the organization and bring about org.-wide support for McShera.
The Progressivist-line begins be refuting these assertions in that 'SDS doesn't run that way...' meaning that no single one person can turn the group. The Progs also cite that Surrency has already pledged his support - and - it wasn't to The Officials. So where does Skeet really stand and is it even relevant to SDS or the GREATER LEFT that Officialist thought has consistently refused to credit to the now splintered-off Progressive Faction of the Orange & Blue Party?
The question of reconciliation cannot be addressed until The Officials address their former comrades with the respect they're owed. Do I agree with the Progs voting down of an O/B'er? Partly, I do and partly, I've personally instigated the notion on this blog.
How can the Progs speak of ideological separation per the upcoming elections yet act inconspicuously in chambers? How do prospective supporters of the breakaway O/B Faction comprise their ideals to fall out of line and support a rebel, when that same rebel and that rebel's supporters are still in-line and actively promoting the very agenda that they're campaign literature states (or will state) they've broken away from?
Ideally, both factions will unite, but I am of the opinion that Ben Dictor offers the greatest amount of good for the independent movement and that McShera was largely thrust into the gap in a hasty, somewhat messy chain of events. I am also firmly of the belief another splinter, this time within the Officials (hereinafter dubbed "the Pragmatists" or 'the Prags') are more open to dialogue and concessions that holding the line against their populist rival faction's executive selection(s).
Institutionally speaking, however, the Officials et. al. (through Article IV. & creation of a strong Party Chair position to offset any difficulties with Miorelli's replacement) are both unprepared & unwilling to eiter share power or much less, hand it over.
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