Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Does History [Really] Repeat Itself?

As a student of history I've formed the opinion that history does in fact repeat itself, but I've also found that it usually takes a few years or perhaps even a few generations. In the case of SG I see history repeating itself almost immediately from one election year to the next. What do I mean?

Picture It! Spring 2005: 1 Rightful Candidate Dennis Ngin & 1 Deserving Candidate Mackensie Moritz... the party splits in two and then splits again because the original coalition that held everyone together and represented basically a clearing house of Independent ideas ceases to exist and neither of the two new factions suffice for a portion of the old guard hardliners, so they dip. The end result is a divided Opposition, so divided in fact that the third party whose not even running a presidential candidate abstains from endorsing anyone for those races.

Now let's fast forward to reality (Fall 2005): Like Access, Gator has accomplished a great deal and I believe its more valid to compare Gator to Acccess than say Gator to Ignite for the simple reason that both Gator and Access both had sizeable columns of essentially independent-minded members, something that could not be said about parties like Ignite.

Access willingly admitted the Innovate bloc, much along the same lines as Gator admitted a steady stream of former foes (the Kassim/Boyles Wave, followed by the next group which I'll dub the Guerra Wave). What's my point, what are my predictions:

1. Gator's Fate - very much like the Roman Empire, good music on MTV, and Access....all good things come to an end. Currently John Boyles is senate president and the #1 [technical] heir to the Gator throne, but as I'd mentioned in months old posts and private emails of as much as a year ago, Mike Patrone is in the wings, he's got Pro-Temp (not that he'd even need that pretext to run for the top job) and he's the kind of guy that I really don't think would serve as Veep -- or second fiddle to anyone --. On the other hand, going from Pro-Temp to Treasurer is in fact a step up, but only if you're a circus midget with tiny feet to match so I doubt this alternative's chances. Then of course there's a third name in the Gator camp whom despite a very serious shot, stood down last year.....promises.....what do they all mean these days anyhow?

Something tells me that 2006 will not be the year of promises or considerations, just like 2005 wasn't. Party unity will fall by the wayside between three men that will not cater to future promises, three men that have built themselves up to the apex of their political and social careers and will be banking on everything they've done and everyone they know to get them that last big win meanwhile their street-smarts will steer them away from anyone or anything that tells them to put all of that on hold, let it collect dust for a year, and that then it'll be ok.


2. Impact: Not The Fallout Shelter - I figured I'd go with a nice Astronomy kinda vibe for this prediction. While Senators Kassim, Boyles, and Guerra have been able to prolong their senate careers by crossing over (I'm holding my tongue only cuz of the fact I actually care about these people) they should know more than anyone else that they will not be welcomed back by the Independent community should they fail in their quest to vy for the Gator Party nudge-to-run. Impact (I/P/V) will stay united so long as it remains the independent representative of the independent community (WIN OR LOSE) and however great the odds of winning may be for the Party's favor in running a still very popular Gator-reject, if they wish to keep cohesion amongst the hardline party supporters they will pass on the idea of running such a person.

Time also plays a key role. When Diane & John left, Impact was still a driving force and could have achieved a victory that would not have necessarily been classified as an upset. When Becca left, what most people would venture to opine is that she left because she just wanted to win and be a senator again. Had Becca stayed in Impact, she would have been the #1 most rightful and deserving presidential candidate and she would have garnered the same REAL greek loyalty that she did before leaving her party, because she is the kind of person that people like, she's a highly respected stateswoman, and her leaving of the Opposition stung (to me at least) much more than John's or Diane's. Final summary: Boyles, Candidate X, and Patrone will split Gator in three and the victor will emerge to take on Impact (I/P/V) in the runoff, but a Gator-reject will not receive the Impact bid, Impact is a real party with real goals and will not humiliate itself, its history, or its members even if they can increase their chances of winning. Remember what I always say, "YOU ONLY LOSE WHEN YOU....SELLOUT."

3). John Boyles will take at least 2 Greek houses (both sororities), may also take Kappa Sigma, so let's three sororities....LMAO j/k. Patrone would take the bulk of the houses for a series of reasons, and Candidate X would be the wildcard, because one would think he'd take all the houses in one fell swoop (this is the first time I use the term 'fell swoop,' did I spell it right? who cares) but if that were the case why would he have stood done in the past, maybe honor, say I think its honor cuz the guy is pretty damn decent when you think about it.


Well that's it for now. I haven't really been too into SG (waiting for Spring to campaign like a madman in the months prior to entering law school [ohhhh where will I end up going?!] It's been great and I should say these are all PREDICTIONS, think of me as an accurate Miss Cleo b/c I'm quite certain we'll see the Access split REPEATED this upcoming term...laugh, sigh, or cry...keep your eyes out for the pie in the sky. =o)

1 comment:

Carl the Baptist said...

I disagree, I think neither Patrone, nor Candidate X are running, and Boyles isnt even at this point being very vocal. Now your candidate X may be different than my Candidate X but if its the person I believe we are both refering to, I think we will see a brief spike followed by an even quicker withdrawl.