TheRadikal.com's Official Election Predictions

First and foremost, let me speak to the issue of credibility. Aside from my Alum' readership, every single regular contributor and friend of the blog hails allegiance to one of the two major Indie factions. There are minor factions as well - be very sure of this. However, these minor factions have succumbed to the ramifications of internal party strife - not seen in Indie cirlcles since the Spring 2005 term.

Minor factions have wrestled with the fact that they are not in a position to break into yet another viable faction and so, have compromised their stances and become mere tendencies of a larger, more pronounced organization - key tendencies from within the Progs would be best articulated by those wanting more revolutionary politics and a mor militant-SG. The leadership of the Progress Party, while possibly sympathetic to many of these worldly causes, has undergone sometimes subtle, sometimes rigid efforts aimed at keeping Dictor a viable alternative to McShera for many Indie moderates. So...I would say that a minor faction within Progress would be 'The Red & Blacks' championed by Justin Wooten. Let it be recorded for all [SG]history, that it was not Ben Dictor or Ben Dictor's charm that won the Progress Party this blog's endorsement, rather, it was the ideological perspectives and future-outlook of Justin Wooten. JW is the red, MT is the black, and JS is neither, but they're all Progress!.

The Orange & Blue Party's minor faction would be the The Pragmatists, of which I believe even Mark McShera could be categorized as being a part of. This faction, through failed attempts stretching even pre-12/11, seemed growingly resilient in its efforts at avoiding a split. Initially, 'the Progs' seemed open to talks with the stunning victory of Donte Hargrove, but even this bleak glimmer of hope soon faded, as Hargrove formally accepted the strengthened role of Party Chair Joe Trimboli (almost a pre-condition on his very election) , thereby substantially weakening the title he'd gain from outgoing Party President (& boss) Sam Mioreli. I believe, that the election of Hargrove drew a line between hardline-Official thought and a version of pragmatism willing to lose some power, in the hopes of saving the day. It's no secret McShera more than likely voted for Hargrove, but what does this say about the candidate and the structure of the party supporting him? Supporting or forcing? Today there is no question Mark wants the Presidency, but in Oct., Nov., and Dec. - it's a bit iffy.


(getting past that little preamble)....

I have Johnson winning the first round, similar to Joe Goldberg in '05, missing the win by less than 1-point. Forcing a run-off.

I predict a large turn-out election: 13,000 votes, of which I believe Jordan Johnson will receive between 6,000-6,500 votes; I believe O&B will come in a distant second with between 3,250 - 3,500 votes; Progress I believe will get between a low of 1,600 votes and a high of 2,100; independent/write-ins candidates will probably secure the remaining votes.

Not to be bested by Progress '05, I believe Progress '09 would not only not endorse Orange & Blue (staying silent per MM/Robert's incarnation) but endorse Unite/Johnson as a final vindication. Johnson/Unite, will more than likely offer piecemeal concessions through mid-level intermediaries and likely fail to give full faith and credit under a Johnson administration to any of the said offers come May 2009.

At this point, Dictor (like most defeated presidential candidates - e.g. Tommy Jardon, Dennis Ngin, Bruce Haupt, Jared Hernandez, Travis Marsh, etc) would either graduate and leave, fade away, or decide to hang up their prestigious SG credentials, opting for retirement and possibly living on as consultants for a carefully selected cadre of respective proteges.

It will be with Dictor's defeat (or McShera's) that we will see where th Independent movement will head post-election and into the new decade. I believe a JW/MT-led Progress would never marry Orange & Blue in the Fall of this year, then again it depends who's in the driver seat.

For O&B Trimboli is the driver (with Miorelli making the gear changes, Cavatero navigating (despite the fact the car comes with OnStar), Stacey Gray has been carefully buckeled into her baby-chair, and Hargrove's out behind in full force - pushing.) . In Progress Simmons is doing the driving, Dictor is doing the site-seeing, MT has leaned forward from the backseat to channel-surf the radio-dial, meanwhile JW & a group of SDS'ers push the car as it smokes by O&B at high speeds of 9mph - yes NINE MILES PER HOUR.

The O&B Arbitration?

Arbitration - The process by which the parties to a dispute submit their differences to the judgment of an impartial person or group appointed by mutual consent or statutory provision. [Source: TheFreeDictionary.com]

Armando Ramon Grundy Gomes is back in the news and he means business. The onetime city commission candidate is holding an arbitration of sorts this Monday in the hopes of sorting out differences between prospective O&B presidential candidates Mark McShera & Ben Dictor.

Interestingly neither faction seems to have agreed to abide by Grundy's findings - making Grundy's role even more ambiguous.

So why is everyone going?

Beats me.

This is Dictor's Party Too!

The Officials have made a mockery of the democratic process. This is not what I meant by a party primary. Just today I was watching the Sg-Span Judiciary tape and I was so proud of Sam Miorelli grilling the committee on Public Notice...only to see his faction cancel a meeting and reconvene it, without a single member of The Progs in attendance. Party Chairman Trimboii won office with a tally of 13:1. Congratulations to Joe, but how in the hell does anyone win office at 13:1 in a divided party?

Big kudos to Orange Blue Senate Leader Ben Cavatero for raising concerns that newly elected Orange & Blue Party President Donte Hargrove was unable to. Donte was elected by The Progs and he couldn't say anything? Is he just going to be a puppet this upcoming term? He told me on facebook to message him if I had any questions....ok.....here's my question dude: (1) Where are your fuckin balls and (2) Where is your fuckin sense of honor? (3) Why didn't you adjourn the meeting?

I always told Miorelli to fight hard against Dictor to come back to his old ways and lead the party against all the odds, but I won't support or look the other way to tyranny. And is Frank Bracco in Orange & Blue or not? Seriously, this kid gets System Jobs and Party Brass and he bounces from side to the other....PICK A SIDE AND STICK TO IT.

No Schneider, no Grasshopper, no Dictor, no Progs, no resistance, no problem...Donte will continue the meeting. Kudos to Kyle Huey for declining his nomination. Kudos to Alan Yanuck for his efforts, albeit too little, too late.

The Value of Democracy

Mark McShera finally seems to be starting to act like a prospective candidate for Student Body President. I think that in the absence of Sam Miorelli, McShera has been thrust into the spotlight as both the frontrunner and a peacemaker. (Btw, the photo here on the right is one of the latest additions on facebook, but I love this photo; this photo should be used in promotions for the party, it just seems to express everything I think of when I think of Orange & Blue and I'm not there, so just think how cool it is! I've not made such a comment in 3.5yrs of blogging).

Today's meeting will either put an end to The Prog's claim to the nomination or it will leave the Party on hiatus for Spring. The Officials stood back and allowed Hargrove to take charge, but will they allow The Progs to literally take control of the party? Will McShera finally step up and give his hardline supporters a reason to fight? Will McShera the frontrunner, finally, engage Dictor - the challenger?

We'll see. Will the Sam Miorelli we all know return to former form? Will Dictor remain composed, yet focused? Will The Ape try to adjourn the meeting early when things start favoring McShera? Will Dave Schneider make converts out of the nay-sayers? Will Tommy Jardon present? Will The Progs block Trimboli for Member-At-Large? Will Liz Stinson be there? And what will Kyle Huey say? Will there be a primary? Who does SDS really support? Are the Obama Kids more for Mark?. What will Gary Benedix have to say?!? Will Cain Norris be there? Will Cavatero shock the world? What will happen at today's meeting?

Insiders insist there will be little doubt who will run for O&B.

Minority Rules Senate...& Now O&B?

Hargrove Defeats Niederriter

Donte Hargrove, an alleged Dictor-loyalist, in a party that some believe is almost 2/3's in the bag for Mark McShera, defeats 'The Officials''s candidate!

It would seem logical for 'The Progs' to receive the party's leadership on paper as part of some exit package, but Dictor remains in position to challenge McShera for the Orange & Blue nomination for student body president.

Insiders from both sides have McShera at a comfortable lead, with Gator observers pleased. The FBK/Greek side seems uneasy about facing a united O&B Party given big losses in Fall and the ever looming possibility of Greek houses revolting.

'The Progs', under Dictor, have a stronger hand at the moment. Numerically speaking, Dictor cannot defeat McShera, but if Hargrove suspended the rules and declared Dictor the party's candidate next term, The Officials would find themselves scrambling for a new party name, spreading word throughout campus, and spending countless hours and money on damage control.

Conceptually speaking, as the frontrunner, McShera's voice should reign supreme (& McShera has recognized Donte Hargrove). However, until January 2009, The Officials will control the party through Sam Miorelli.

Miorelli could potentially suspend the rules and call for new elections. Rumor has it McShera opposes the idea of Josh Simmons being re-admitted to Exec., there would be a huge deadlock if the Party's SBP candidate forbade the re-admission of an Exec. Committee applicant, largely favored by the Party President. Miorelli just might make this potential showdown never happen...

Josh Simmons is also in an interesting position. A week ago he wanted back into O&B Exec. and today, some would say he's the power behind the O&B President-elect.

What an interesting time Spring may be. Simmons & Miorelli, both graduating next term, will be actively wrestling to get Hargrove in their corner -- who wins? Is it that obvious? How did The Officials lose the party presidency? I don't get it, but if one thing's for sure, Ben Dictor remains a viable underdog in contention for the party nomination.

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Simmons Writes Duque

Christian,

I unfortunately had to step out for a goodly portion of the business part of the meeting, but since you seem to have gotten the gist of what actually happened already, I'll talk repercussions with you.

As far as this farcical assertion that I am somehow in control of Donte, it's patently ridiculous. I'd never even been properly introduced to the guy until yesterday. He's not beholden to anyone - he was duly elected in the first free and fair officer election a minority party has ever held. Although I'm sure he's more likely to consider my opinion than Sam Miorelli would, that's not saying much - it's become incredibly clear to everyone, I think, that Sam Miorelli listens to no one except the voices inside his head.

With regard to the party's nomination, that matter wasn't considered, although the McShera faction tried to force his nomination through in the meeting's garbage time (after, in fact, Miorelli had gavelled the meeting adjourned) but that attempt was abandoned after Donte was announced as the new party president and the shock thereof. I'm not sure if Ben will seek the nomination again - you'd have to ask him about that. I think that he feels the election of Donte is a step in the right direction, though, towards restoring the principles he feels the party originally stood for.

As to my climbing back into the mystical realm of the "exec," frankly I couldn't care less whether McShera wants me or not. In fact, the mentality that there is some powerful group of "exec" members is the sort of thing I'm trying to change by supporting Ben Dictor. One way or another, I'm going to be in the room offering my perspective, and hopefully someone will decide that it's worth taking into consideration.

There's supposed to be another meeting tomorrow to elect the remainder of the party's officials and potentially the SBP nominee (although not necessarily), and we'll know more after that.

Cheers,
-Josh Simmons

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"I think it's reprehensible how people that I helped get elected now see fit to openly trash me and the other people who donated huge amounts of money and time to get them elected for their own personal political gain."

Sen. Sam Miorelli
Orange & Blue Party President

Dictor, McShera Must Carry On Till Spring

The value of the O&B nomination is increasing in value. The independent movement is growing, by leaps and bounds. Candidates of necessity, like Bruce Haupt & Thomas Jardon, will hopefully be a thing of the past. Haupt and Jardon are perhaps the two most important men of the Independent movement of the instant decade. Without these 'candidates of necessity' the Independent movement would have perished.

There will always be a non-establishment candidate/party, but that's not the independent movement. The Orange & Blue Party has direct lineage to Action, Pants, Progress, Impact, Access, and Stuent Alliance to Voice. This is a movement that grown from single party victories to boasting of a Student Body President, to breaking Fall Records (Impact '05, O&B '08).

I'm not sure what went on yesterday, but I'll have collected my thoughts by tonight.

The Front-Runner & His Passive Challenger

This blog has contributed, perhaps, to Dictor's decision to withdraw and if that's the case -- no apologies. I want Dictor in this race, but I want Dictor to develop thicker skin. I also want Mark to gradually ditch this go-between persona and begin rally for the party nomination. Having Mark go to the org's is not the way to go, he's putting the cart before the horse. You go to the org.'s when you're campaigning for President. When you campaign for the primaries, you need to get out there and win RANK-IN-FILE hearts and minds.

Mark has the loyalists - but will these loyalists dwindle once Sam walks? What are relations like between McShera & Jardon? Both candidates have support, but both are equally indecisive. One candidate is believed by some, one of some right here, to be something of a conduit for Sam Miorelli - a sort of placeholder. I know Mark is more than that, but up until, I'm not convinced. Ben Dictor was forbidden from contacting me, allegedly by Sam Miorelli, but now that we've spoken, my only major bone to pick with him, is why he's not forcing a primary.

In all honesty I'd like to see Dictor in that running. I'd like to see people fight (though not maliciously) for the Independent nomination. I want that nomination to be valuable, I want it to be taken seriously, I want people from Gator to see how real democracy works. I want this primary to inspire change across the boards. I want to see Hargrove run. I want to see Cavatero test the waters for Spring '10, I want to see people nominate random people.


If you believe this sound comes from this band,
then you prolly think O&B doesn't need a real primary.

Dictor Withdraws. Duque Objects.

We've just received word from Orange & Blue Party President, Sam Miorelli that Sen. Ben Dictor has officially witdrawn from the running for Student Body President. Removing Dictor from the running, the Cavatero Theory falls apart. As of right now, Mark McShera seems to be the clear front runner for the Orange & Blue nomination.

I just got off the phone with Ben Dictor (call lasted 1hr, 18minutes). I like him, I really do. He may just have won over the Duque with a salespitch, but I've collapsed this post and deleted the "3 Candidates" entry. I also encouraged Dictor to remain in the race, although I remain behind the Miorelli-faction which will likely give the nomination to Mark McShera.

Some months ago I extended an olive branch to Pedro Morales, I think the time may be appropriate to do the same with Josh Simmons.

I'm also glad Gary Benedix is out looking for B-Cell, lemme know how that goes.

Duque Right Again; O&B Should Take Advice

Hours before a key meeting between Mark McShera and Ben Dictor, the Turncoat-Backed Rogue went to the Alligator and announced his candidacy for Student Body President. In all candor, I said that Orange & Blue would split into factions leading into the Spring, even posed the question on Frank Bracco's Q&A - a scenario he (like many others) were oblivious to.

The Orange & Blue Party of Spring & Fall 2008 would have been unstoppable had it been given one more term...the numbers don't lie. I truly and honestly believe that a Dictor ticket now, after his lack of good faith (announcing hours before a key party dialogue sit-down with Mark McShera), would set a very dangerous precedent in Independent politics.

Before the break...actually as of right now...Sam Miorelli as Orange & Blue Party President should announce the O&B Nominee for Student Body President, Mark McShera. Setting Dictor as a rogue early on will cure any misgivings about his support within Orange & Blue. If factions are going to break off....now is the time for that to happen. The break should be all about damage control and a revamping strategies.

Student Body President Sam Miorelli

That's got a nice sound to it, it sounds fitting and in many ways very much realizable. O&B listened when it came to the impeachment of Paul Drayton - I would argue that that (and the email scandal) made voters more aware of a difference between the System and the Independents. Look...every indie party has exhausted its networking capabilities, so to simply give O&B the Big 12 win simply on that would suggest that Action, Pants, Impact, Progress, & Voice just didn't get the word out there enough -- that's just bullshit.

O&B stood up, their recent filibustering defensive will only add to their already assertive & defiant voice from the Minority. Americans love the underdog, for the hundreds of punches Apollo landed on Rocky, people still felt like they were in the fight everytime Rocko would hit the champ's ribs and make him bend over sideways. O&B landed punches this past Spring and fired four combinations against Gator in Fall. In boxing terms, Gator is in the lead, but its eyes are swollen, it's nose has been broken, its ribs are flaring, and and its legs are giving out from time to time.

There will be no need for ear-bitting or headbutting if O&B gets out to the organizations and speaks now! Speaks the first week of the new term! It's not campaigning folks ---- it's constituent requirements - ONLY GO 2, 3, 4x your required orgs!

I firmly believe that if O&B gains 5% before the term is over and another 5% beginning early next term, that come election time....Jordan Johnson will be giving his concession speech to Student Body President-elect Sam Miorelli.

Gator will still have the majority of wins in senate, but the students will split their ballots to make a statement.

Duque has made his prediction November 26, 2008. And as much as people want to knock him, Sam Miorelli can only benefit by having Thomas Jardon in his corner. I really hope for the future of the movement and for the fact that the Indies are so close, that their egos (they're 12 senate wins) won't see them alienate Jardon. From what I'm told people are angry he's lazy, to them I say: 'the guy has paid his dues, the solider you want has been a general since before you arrived at UF...run ideas by him, explore strategies, CONSULT with him! But if you're looking for a guy to dig ditches, I just don't think he's your guy. Maybe in Spring 2005, but you're headed into Spring '09...show some respect.'

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President Miorelli

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Disassociation

Esteemed Senators,
Sen. Jon Ossip,
Sen. Gary Benedix,
Sen. Alan Yanuck,
Sen. Dave Schneider,
Sen. Zach Mori,
Sen. Dylan Billodeaux,
Sen. Travis Baker,
Sen. Stacey Gray,
Sen. Jacob Fyda,
Sen. Alden Gillespy::

Congratulations on your election to the University of Florida Student Senate. I too was elected to this prestigious body in the Spring 2004 and I can honestly relate to the hard work, the sacrifice, and the abuse you all must have taken on the campaign trail.

The Orange & Blue Party was a party that evolved from a very special line of independent parties at UF. O&B went back to basics and raised an old, GDI plan of attack from the dead. No racial cards, no celebrity candidates, no renegade ruling party hacks -- just 'plain, in your face independent kids ready to fight to the wire and kick some FBK ass.' And you did that and in the many races you didn't, you were shy by just enough of votes for others to have allegedly cooked the numbers enough to have escaped your wrath.

You have a great deal to be proud of, but your hard work and sacrifice should be exchanged for a select few to collect titles and selfishly align themselves (bargaining with your name and your networking) to receive larger benefits for themselves.

To quote one of your leaders, Sen. Mark McShera, who currently 'won' a post a Member-At-Large of the Senate's most powerful committee:

"I hope to be able to run for re-election this Spring for CLAS, serve out a second Senate term ending in March 2010 and then graduate in May 2010. To quote General William Sherman, "If drafted, I will not run; if nominated, I will not accept; if elected, I will not serve."

All I'm saying to you fine, newly elected leaders is to be weary of colleagues more interested in themselves than in the pursuit of the greater good. I want all of you to look at Senators Miorelli (party president), McShera (plan re-election), & Cavatero (re-elected)... look at what they get during this session and then look at your group and see what you get. If at the end of the day you're subsisting of bread and water and your collective voice is brokered several meetings in advance -- then please consider doing the honorable thing: disassociation from the Orange & Blue Party. You will still be able to fight the O&B Platform, only you will not subscribe to the shady backroom deals.

Remember. Once they get their fill & graduate -- you're all on your own. Believe it.

Remember, you were elected to serve the students, not serve the party. You were told by your leaders that you were Independents, but today your 'Independent Leaders' break bread and cavort with the very scoundrels that have bogged down this University's Student Government since the 1930's.

YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE PART OF THE PROBLEM;
YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE PART OF THE LIE.

Congratulations O&B!!!

It's hard to believe, but O&B secured just one seat shy of the Access Party of 2004 and they did this all on their own GDI dime. Sam Miorelli has been re-elected and a fresh new crop of SG'ers are on their way in. I've only been saying this for months now, but Gator is on the way out. They can change the name to Swamp, Innovate or Ignite but that won't change things.

I hope that Kellie Dale & Marygrace Bell get dealt with by Patricia Telles-Irvin just like Reilly. I think being called to her office sends a very, very strong message. NO CALENDARS FOR YOU THIS YEAR!

So anyway, congratulations to Orange & Blue! Look to 'Ken Is Speaking' for a better morning-after post -- I have a cold.

Go Orange & Blue!

Not much to say this early in the morning, except to wish you the best. You guys are really taking it to the next level. I still hope Sam Miorelli will announce. Perhaps McShera would be better for SBT, but I insist (even based off of my physical distance from SG) he is Executive material. I urge both Miorelli & McShera to reconsider my request. The time to announce is now.

You will not have the momentum you have now. Gator is hurting. They're going to win this run, it's Fall. But you two can make a big difference campaigning as Executive candidates in a Fall election. You can call into question all of the tools in the System arsenal...you can make public spectacles of their Elections Commission, denying the "have-nots, the 84% of campus" not only the right for their candidates to campaign for their colleagues, but denying them the right to online voting, proper representation on "Machen's vision to dry out campus," the uniformity in chambers, the indifference to UF students getting electrocuted by agents of the UF administration apparatus, you can pounce these people.

It's never been done before. Please think about it. I don't just know two names, I know a good bit about over a dozen top GDI's at UF. The two of you are the ones that I really believe have Exec. potential. Please don't mistake my lack of tact insofar as implying that you, Mark, were a turncoat -- you're far from it.

It just irks me to see real potential settle in for anything less than your destiny. Announce. If you change your mind in December, politely drop out, b/c by then O&B will be much more organized, much more known, and on it's way. I have almost no doubt neither of you would drop out. Either one of you is SBP material, but divided you'll destroy O&B.

For now, I'm glad to see you slating as you are. Incredible!

Indie Profiles

Being as I'm not on the ground, I'd love to have an opportunity to learn more about the current crop of GDI & Independent leaders at UF. Normally what you're reading would be sent out to leaders on a personal basis, almost in interview-format. Today, I'm not only asking those same leaders, but I'm opening up the format to the general readership.

With the exception of the Spring 2006, when this blog split its endorsement between Swamp & Unite, this is a GDI blog.

Please post comments. What have O&B's leaders tried to do? Where have they failed? What positive qualities do you like about them? I always hear the system people knock the Minority for 'too much talk and too little work,' so here's your opportunity. Also, I'd really to hear about bills, resolutions, dissents. I'd like to know what YOU think. Who has Tommy's backing? Mark & Sam - I know hardly anything about this "rivalry."

Where are the women in today's Independent movement? Who are they?

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"This supposed 'rivalry' simply does not exist. Sam and I share the same long-term goal for the independent movement, the complete destruction of the FBK backed system. As we are both very assertive and strong willed, this occasionally leads to some behind the scenes conflict over minor tactical issues. However, this type of competition of ideas is what keeps the Orange and Blue Party one step ahead of Gator. Everyone forcefully advocates their position and only the best proposals move forward. I would like to think that Sam and I bring out the best in each other, just as Kyle Huey brings out the best in Ben Cavataro or Cain Norris brings out the best in Joe Trimboli."

-- Mark McShera

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